NASCAR preseason driver rankings: Chase Elliott tops the list as 2023 begins (2024)

With the season-opening Daytona 500 a little more than a week away, it’s the time of year when optimism reigns for every driver and team.

Of course, that optimism isn’t always based in reality. And before long, the confidence a driver and team have now can devolve into a combination of befuddlement and frustration that they’re not performing better.

So then, which drivers should truly feel good about themselves and which drivers have reason to worry about what’s ahead? Here’s a preseason ranking of all 33 drivers who are planning to race in all 36 Cup Series races in 2023.

1. Chase Elliott

In the prime of his career and driving for a premier organization, you know what to expect out of Elliott on a year-to-year basis. At a minimum, he’s likely going to win multiple races, be among the contenders for the regular-season points crown and go far in the playoffs. And if everything falls into place, winning a second series championship is very much attainable.

2. Kyle Larson

By his own admission, Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team underperformed last season, never capturing the mojo that propelled Larson during his record-breaking 2021 championship run. Still, that he won three races and had the second-most top-five finishes is the kind of “down year” nearly any driver would gladly take. Expect Larson to be among the series wins leaders and again seriously challenge for the title.

3. Christopher Bell

It will be hard for Bell to follow up on a terrific 2022 that saw him win three races — two in the playoffs, both on demanding tracks — and advance to the championship finale. But the fourth-year driver possesses the kind of talent to surpass last year’s numbers across the board. While he may not get the same level of hype as some others, he’s deserving of a spot on the short list of viable championship favorites.

4. Joey Logano

Elite driver, exemplary crew chief, exceptional team that has a wealth of resources and just happens to excel better than any other at adapting to change — yeah, there are substantial reasons to have confidence that Logano can be the first repeat champion since Jimmie Johnson (2006-2010).

5. Denny Hamlin

Be it driver errors or mistakes on pit road, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team left quite a few wins on the table last year that ultimately proved costly in the playoffs. Improving the problems on pit road has been an area of emphasis this offseason at JGR, which would go a long way to returning Hamlin to being the dominating force he so often is. Another issue that needs addressing: He failed to finish six races in 2022, the highest number he’s ever had in a season in which he entered every race. Some may question whether Hamlin remains an elite talent considering his age (42) and how last season unfolded. But don’t forget that even with all challenges, it took the “Hail Melon” to keep him out of the championship final for a fourth straight year.

6. Ross Chastain

One-hit wonder or the start of something bigger? That’s the cloud of skepticism hanging over Chastain after a sensational breakout 2022 season, one that included him pulling off an improbable maneuver that NASCAR later banned. Plenty of reasons exist to think last year was no fluke, but it’s up to Chastain (and Trackhouse Racing) to prove this to be true.

7. Ryan Blaney

How do you view Blaney’s 2022 season? Yes, he failed to score a win in a points-paying race and needed a borderline miracle to qualify for the playoffs. On the other hand, he had more top-five finishes than his champion teammate Logano, had the same number of top-10s, led the series in stage wins and finished third in the regular-season points standings. That’s a lot to like.

8. Tyler Reddick

While Kyle Busch joining Richard Childress Racing absorbed much of the spotlight, the biggest free-agent transaction may have been 23XI Racing signing Reddick. The 27-year-old is a future superstar, something he demonstrated last year when he won three times with an RCR organization that in the previous nine years had all of four victories. This is a very good fit between a budding driver and a team on the rise. The biggest challenge is for Reddick to not press trying to prove his value at his new home. Success will come if he’s patient. As for how success should be defined: multiple wins, a playoff berth and advancing to the second playoff round is realistic.

9. Martin Truex Jr.

Some look at Truex’s 2022 season and see a driver beginning to decline at age 42. That’s somewhat fair considering he scored zero wins and failed to make the playoffs. But a closer inspection reveals a driver who also finished the regular season fourth in points and tied for second in stage wins. Had circ*mstances unfolded differently, he might’ve scored four or five wins. Sunday’s Clash victory is likely a snapshot of what we can anticipate out of Truex this season — someone highly motivated to prove 2022 was a fluke and that he’s still the same level of driver.

10. William Byron

After taking another step in his progression in 2022, winning multiple races for the first time and nearly making the Championship Four, Byron is primed for what could be deemed a “breakout season.” Realistically, that means surpassing his win total from a year ago and advancing to the final playoff round. Each of these goals is more than obtainable for the driver who is only 25.

11. Kyle Busch

The dynamic of this new driver-team pairing is going to be extensively analyzed. Ultimately, if Busch can recapture the form that won him two championships and if Richard Childress Racing’s Chevrolets have the same speed as a year ago, then 2023 has an excellent chance to be a great one for all involved.

12. Kevin Harvick

Will Harvick’s retirement tour be more Jeff Gordon — an emotional, memorable victory that earned him a spot in the championship final — or more Jimmie Johnson — a winless season with no playoffs? That pendulum is likely to swing more toward the Gordon side where Harvick wins at least once and is a factor in the postseason. A championship is a little too storybook, though if any driver is capable of willing themself to the title, it certainly would be him.

13. Alex Bowman

Bowman’s won a race four straight years and qualified for the playoffs five straight years. So we know the baseline of what to expect out of him. There is no reason to think anything changes even with the departure of longtime crew chief Greg Ives, with whom Bowman had a strong relationship. In fact, the addition of Ives’ replacement, Blake Harris, is a difference-maker that should elevate Bowman to the next level. Possible dark-horse contender?

14. Chase Briscoe

Briscoe’s 2022 season was bookended by impressive results, underscoring that Stewart-Haas Racing was smart to lock up the third-year driver to a multi-year contract. Less impressive was the middle portion of his season, though a lot of that can be chalked up to a young driver still finding his way, combined with some bad luck. This season, anticipate seeing more of the Briscoe that won in the spring at Phoenix and went on a Cinderella-esque playoff run. Winning multiple races is a real possibility.

15. Bubba Wallace

Whether it’s 23XI co-owner Hamlin, Toyota president David Wilson or Wallace himself, they each stated that the expectation in 2023 is for Wallace to make the playoffs for the first time. Confidence is high among all three that the 29-year-old is poised for a big season following a 2022 where he made giant gains that included an emphatic win at Kansas. Wallace’s ability on superspeedways is well known, but he’s worked hard to become a well-rounded driver, as evidenced by him setting career highs in several major statistical categories last year. In his third year at 23XI and sixth in Cup, 2023 has all the makings to be the best of his career.

16. Austin Cindric

It’s going to be hard for Cindric to top his 2022 rookie campaign that saw him win the Daytona 500 and earn a playoff spot. Still, the schedule sets up too favorably to think that he doesn’t earn a second win at some point this season to again punch his playoff ticket.

17. AJ Allmendinger

The last time Allmendinger competed in Cup full time, he was miserable, upset and frustrated by his lack of consistent competitiveness. Now he’s back and with a team in Kaulig Racing that makes it a point to keep Allmendinger’s spirits up. Helping matters in this department is a Cup schedule flusher with road courses since he left, the style of tracks the former open-wheel racer excels on. Maybe it’s setting the bar too high, but it feels like a foregone conclusion that Allmendinger will win at least one of the five road-course races during the regular season to secure playoff eligibility.

18. Daniel Suárez

It’s hard to quibble with the 2022 that Suárez turned in, winning his first career race and securing a first-ever playoff berth. But as good as all this was, his results paled to his Trackhouse teammate, Chastain. That’s a performance gap Suárez must close this year. He’s a good enough driver to win just about everywhere, while Trackhouse showed it can build winning cars. With Suárez in a contract year — though in no apparent jeopardy of his ride — a season where he outperforms his teammate could go a long way to long-term job security.

19. Austin Dillon

A driver who’s often not given the credit he deserves, Dillon could be the beneficiary if Busch levels up RCR as much as the organization thinks he can. Dillon has shown to be an effective points racer and has a penchant for placing himself in positions late in races that allow him to snag unexpected wins. So if RCR is indeed improved, his path to the playoffs could be relatively straightforward compared to previous years.

20. Erik Jones

The winner of the Southern 500 in September, Jones is a talent who, if given fast cars, knows how to take advantage. What remains to be seen is whether the rebranded Legacy Motor Club can again provide its driver with race-winning equipment and if the parity that was commonplace a year ago remains prevalent. If yes to both, Jones is someone who could unexpectedly crash the playoffs.

21. Brad Keselowski

When Keselowski tweeted his goals for the year, they included him winning twice. Considering the struggles he and RFK Racing went through a year ago, such optimism may feel misplaced. Outside of Daytona and Bristol, he didn’t factor into the outcome much in 2022. By the end of the year, there were positive signs for both he and the organization. Confidence is high within RFK that 2022 was a jumping-off point and the team is poised for big things. We’ll see.

22. Chris Buescher

Buescher’s Bristol win offered proof that 1) he is a winning driver at the Cup level (his only other victory six years prior was weather-aided) and 2) RFK’s rebuild is on the right path. If you’re looking for a sleeper driver in 2023, Buescher would make a fine choice, as he’s capable of getting the most out of his car every week. The question is whether RFK can continue to make the necessary performance gains.

23. Ty Gibbs

The driver’s ability isn’t in doubt. And JGR is, well, JGR. Even knowing all this, it’s not fair to saddle a rookie with unreasonable expectations. What’s important for Gibbs this year is to gain experience, avoid mistakes brought about by immaturity and shoot for a top-20 points finish. If he can do all this, the season will be deemed successful.

24. Justin Haley

Due in large part to his unassuming personality on and off the track, Haley often flies under the radar. And this was the case a year ago when he quietly finished 22nd in points despite it being the first full season in Cup for both himself and Kaulig. Armed with experience, Haley is someone to watch because the potential is there for him to surprise folks if Kaulig can avoid the growing pains that come with building a multi-car team from the ground up. Helping matters is having the veteran Allmendinger in Kaulig’s second car full-time, as he and Haley have a strong relationship that will benefit all parties.

25. Ryan Preece

All the credit in the world goes to Preece for putting in the work to get a full-time chance with a team like SHR. Now, he has to make the most of it. What he did at the Clash was a big statement, but races like that need to become the norm for him, not the exception, if he’s to keep this ride. Could Preece be the Chastain of this year? That’s a big ask, but the possibility does exist.

26. Aric Almirola

It’s easy to dismiss Almirola’s chances. Yet, every time you do, he does something unexpected — like winning at New Hampshire in 2021 — to remind you that he cannot be written off. There is no way to know which version we get of him this year, but him making the playoffs, somehow, some way, cannot entirely be dismissed.

27. Michael McDowell

Perpetually overlooked, McDowell had his most consistent season to date in 2022 with career highs in top-10s, laps led and average finish. It would seem that he and Front Row Motorsports are in a good spot heading into 2023, but the loss of crew chief Blake Harris is going to sting. Travis Peterson, a former engineer at RFK, steps into the role and will be McDowell’s third crew chief in three years.

28. Noah Gragson

There are a lot of positive vibes surrounding Legacy, and signing Gragson was a smart decision that gives the team another talented young driver to build around. Nonetheless, a rookie driver on a rebuilding team brings with it an inherent performance ceiling. For Gragson, a good season is represented by showing improvement with a handful of top 10s.

29. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

There are stretches when it appears as if Stenhouse and JTG Daugherty Racing are poised for a breakthrough — like last spring when he posted successive finishes of second, eighth, eighth and seventh. And there are other occasions when this team appears lost in the wilderness — like the other 32 races last season when Stenhouse had just a single top 10. Entering 2023, there’s no reason to expect anything different, which means it’s best to keep those expectations in check.

30. Corey LaJoie

How LaJoie does in 2023 centers primarily around whether his No. 7 Spire Motorsports team can eliminate the ghastly finishes that hampered them last year. Sixteen times LaJoie finished 25th or worse, an unacceptable number often attributed to factors beyond the driver’s control. Knocking this down to a more reasonable amount gives LaJoie a better chance to turn some heads with his ability, and perhaps pull off an upset victory along the way.

31. Harrison Burton

It’s a big season for the sophom*ore driver who comes in knowing he has to demonstrate that he deserves a spot with a de facto Penske team. How Burton does will be a storyline to follow all year, because should he stumble, the pressure will intensify. A ride with the Wood Brothers is a coveted opportunity due to its Penske alliance.

32. Ty Dillon

Fair or not, it’s hard to imagine Dillon joining Spire having much impact in the grand scheme. He’s a driver who’s never finished better than 24th in points and never had an average finish in the teens, nor is Spire an organization with the present capability to consistently run up front. Finishing in the top 30 in points with a couple of top-10s is Dillon’s goal this year.

33. Cody Ware

A small team (Rick Ware Racing) and young driver who had the worst average finish among full-time competitors last season (27.8) inspires little confidence that 2023 will be all that different from 2022.

(Top photo of Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe and Aric Almirola: Araya Doheny / Getty Images)