2023 NASCAR Driver Tiers, post-Fontana: Kyle Busch jumps to No. 1 after statement win (2024)

Every week during the NASCAR Cup Series season, The Athletic is going to assess how full-time drivers stack up against one another. The assessment won’t just take into account results from the just-completed race weekend but the season as a whole.

Drivers will be divided into categories and, depending on their respective performances, can move up or down on a given week. Although one good or bad week isn’t necessarily going to dramatically affect a driver’s ranking, there will be occasions where a driver may jump up considerably — for instance, someone unexpectedly winning a race, as we saw in the season-opening Daytona 500.

Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic’s NASCAR Driver Tiers.

Tier 1: Championship favorites

1. Kyle Busch
2. Ross Chastain
3. Joey Logano
4. Chase Elliott
5.Denny Hamlin
6.Kyle Larson
7.Christopher Bell

Any questions about how Busch would adapt to his new home at Richard Childress Racing after 15 years with Joe Gibbs Racing have been soundly answered. That was an impressive victory Sunday, with Busch overcoming a pit road speeding penalty, outrunning Chastain over the final 34 laps, crew chief Randall Burnett continually making the correct adjustments to give his driver the winning car, and RCR looking very much like it has the potential to rise up and be a factor in the championship — something that hasn’t occurred since 2013. And it’s important to note that had just a few things played out differently, Busch could be 3‐for‐3 in the win column to start the year.

An argument could be made that Chastain deserves to move up to No. 1 after leading a race‐high 91 laps on Sunday, netting two stage wins and finishing third, his second straight top 10. But that Busch has a win and Chastain doesn’t is the deciding factor. That Chastain has begun the season by exhibiting the same performance level he showed all of last season goes a long way to answering any questions about whether he’d fall back to earth after a career year.

Typically, Elliott isn’t the most enthused about finishing second, but on Sunday he was fairly upbeat about what had transpired. And with good reason. His runner‐up was his first top‐five result on any track since his win at Talladega in October, and his first top five on an intermediate (non-drafting) oval since his win at Nashville in June. That’s a long stretch for a driver and team that should be good everywhere.

Though no fault of their own, neither Larson nor Bell had much of a chance Sunday. An electrical issue sent Larson to the garage almost immediately, and Bell suffered major damage when collected in the nine‐car accident that occurred on the Lap 88 restart. Las Vegas offers each a good opportunity to bounce back.

Tier 2: On the cusp

8. Martin Truex Jr.
9. Alex Bowman
10. Ryan Blaney
11. Kevin Harvick

With Busch moving up a tier and William Byron down, this is a smaller group than a week ago. Getting top billing is Truex, who finished 11th in a result that doesn’t truly indicate how fast a Toyota he had. He had to overcome falling not one but two laps behind due to a loose wheel penalty, and had he gotten a caution late he likely would have finished in the top 10. With some better luck and improved execution by the No. 19 JGR team, Truex could be back in victory lane very soon.

Bowman posting consecutive top 10s is a good start to a team that’s adapting to a new chief in Blake Harris. Bowman ranks third in points. He heads to Las Vegas as the defending race winner and his repeating wouldn’t be too shocking considering the Hendrick Chevys seem to have speed on intermediate tracks.

Yet another race where Blaney had a potentially winning car and not the finish to show for it. The latest example came when during a routine pit stop, a tangled air hose caused him to fall way down the running order, placing him in the thick of it when cars started stacking up on the Lap 88 restart. That severely damaged Blaney’s car and ruined any chance for a respectable finish in what is becoming an epidemic for the No. 12 Team Penske group.

Tier 3: Playoff contenders

12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
13. Daniel Suarez
14. William Byron
15. AJ Allmendinger
16. Bubba Wallace
17. Chase Briscoe
18. Tyler Reddick

Stenhouse stated Saturday his goal was to average a 15th‐place finish throughout the regular season, which he felt would be high enough to assure himself a playoff spot in case more than 16 drivers won a race. An admirable goal, but also one that feels a bit unrealistic considering his best average finish is 17th. That said, Stenhouse did finish 12th on Sunday, a very good result for a JTG Daugherty Racing team that often struggles on intermediate tracks.

Like his Trackhouse teammate Chastain, Suarez followed a good Daytona outing by leaving Southern California with a top‐four finish. That moved Suarez up to fifth in points, the highest he’s ever been in the Cup standings, surpassing his previous best of seventh that he achieved last fall after the race at Texas.

During the offseason as folks made out their predictions, it was common to have Wallace, Byron, Briscoe and Reddick qualifying for the playoffs. And yet, with the acknowledgment that it’s still early, this quartet finds itself well down in points through two races. Wallace ranks 26th, Byron 29th, Briscoe 33rd and Reddick 38th and last. Again, it’s early, and their respective fortunes can change for the better in a hurry at Las Vegas, but this is not how any of these guys envisioned starting the season.

You can probably add Allmendinger to the above list, but at least he finished sixth at Daytona, which helps balance out his finishing 36th Sunday due to a crash.

Tier 4: On the outside

19. Austin Dillon
20. Brad Keselowski
21. Chris Buescher
22. Ty Gibbs
23. Austin Cindric
24. Corey LaJoie
25. Aric Almirola
26. Erik Jones

RCR’s newest hire isn’t its only driver off to a strong start. Dillon turned in a fine run for the third race in a row, but unlike Daytona, he made it to the finish line Sunday with his car in one piece. He finished ninth, moving him up 10 spots in the standings to 23rd. For a driver whose path to the playoffs could likely come via points accumulation, this was a much-needed result.

Confidence oozed throughout RFK Racing over the offseason that the team would take a notable leap in Keselowski’s second year with the organization. Through two races that confidence is proving justified. After nearly winning the Daytona 500, Keselowski rallied from a spin to finish seventh at Auto Club Speedway. And Buescher finished fourth at Daytona and 13th at ACS, good enough to have him ranked sixth in points. It remains to be seen whether RFK can maintain this performance, but thus far the results are encouraging.

A lot of credit needs to be directed towards LaJoie, crew chief Ryan Sparks and the No. 7 Spire Motorsports team for their impressive effort Sunday, arguably the most well-rounded in LaJoie’s three years with the team. He ran consistently in the top 15, earned a stage point and had an average running position of 14th. That’s impressive. And all this transpired despite LaJoie spinning off Turn 4, and ACS being a style track where small teams like Spire find themselves at a considerable disadvantage. As things stand, and with the caveat it’s only two races, LaJoie ranks 13th in points, which is ahead of such notables as Elliott (14th), Bell (15th), Byron (29th) and Reddick (38th).

Tier 5: The rest

27. Michael McDowell
28. Harrison Burton
29. Todd Gilliland
30. Noah Gragson
31. Justin Haley
32. Ryan Preece
33. Cody Ware
34. Ty Dillon

A good weekend in Southern California for Front Row Motorsports teammates Gilliland and McDowell saw each leave ACS with a top-20 finish — Gilliland 17th, McDowell 18th. This is especially noteworthy for Gilliland, whose job status with Front Row beyond this season is very much up in the air. He needs to remind people that not too long ago, he was considered one of NASCAR’s top prospects.

Not the start to the season Preece wanted nor needed after being collected in accidents at Daytona and ACS and failing to finish either race. That has him buried in points (34th), erasing much of the optimism that surrounded SHR finally giving him his big break with a top organization.

(Photo of Kyle Busch celebrating in victory lane: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)

Jordan Bianchi is a motorsports reporter for The Athletic. He is a veteran sports reporter, having covered the NBA, NFL, Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, NASCAR, IndyCar and sports business for several outlets. Follow Jordan on Twitter @jordan_bianchi