What was the economic impact of African swine fever in China?

African swine fever has damaged the foundation of China's hog industry, caused a serious decline in hog production , highlighted the contradiction between supply and demand in the pork market, and led to major economic and social impacts.

What is the impact of the African swine fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets?

China's swine herd experienced a 30-month cycle of decline and recovery, as the country lost an estimated 27.9 million metric tons of its pork output . Pork prices in China more than doubled despite a surge of pork exports from the European Union, United States, Canada, Brazil, and other countries.

How much did the African swine fever cost?

Economic Devastation: African Swine Fever Outbreak in U.S. Would Cost $79.5 Billion . Research has shown the impact of an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak on the U.S. pork and beef industries would be economically devastating. A recent analysis shows it would be even more devastating now with high input costs.

What is the economic impact of the swine industry?

The sales generated from hog marketing and pork processing support a total economic contribution of $35 billion in personal income and $57 billion in value-added .

How does African swine fever affect the global markets?

Conclusion. ASF is a black swan event in the global agricultural markets. So far, it has affected multiple countries in Eastern Europe and Asia and resulted in a loss of nearly 40% of the hog inventory of China —the largest pork producer in the world with half the pigs globally.

What is the $100 billion toll of a pig epidemic in China?

The researchers estimated that more than 40 million pigs died because of infection, culling and other impacts of the virus, compared to the 1.2 million that the country had officially reported by July 2019 . They calculate that this amounted to an economic loss of about US$111.2 billion.

What are the risk factors for the spread of African swine fever in China a systematic review of Chinese language literature?

Based on 31 reviewed records, live pig transport, swill feeding and vehicles were the three most important risks for spread contributing to the ASF epidemic in China.

What are two economic reasons for China's increased investment in Africa?

China's economic growth has increased its need for raw materials, particularly industrial metals, and fuels . Africa has vast natural resources and, owing to low levels of industrialisation, a huge export potential.

What are some of the consequences for China's rapid economic growth?

China's rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in bilateral commercial ties with the United States . According to U.S. trade data, total trade between the two countries grew from $5 billion in 1980 to $660 billion in 2018.

What are the economic impacts of foreign animal disease?

Economic model results show large monetary losses for beef, beef cattle, hogs, and pork sectors , mainly caused by the loss of exports under a given set of foreign sanitary and phytosanitary policies. Other agricul- tural sectors experience small losses or, in some cases, small gains.

What are the effects of African swine fever?

ASF has a complex epidemiology and can affect domestic and feral pigs of all ages, with clinical signs including fever, 'blotching' of the skin, incoordination, bloody diarrhoea and pneumonia . Mortality rates are often very high.

Exploring Spatial Price Relationships: The Case of African Swine Fever in China (2024)

Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains

Pol Antrás (ed.), David Zilberman (ed.)

https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226829234.001.0001

Published:

2023

Online ISBN:

9780226829234

Print ISBN:

9780226829227

- Copyright Page
  - Notes
  - Notes
- Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the NBER
  - Notes
  - Notes
- Preface
  - Notes
  - Notes
Introduction
- Notes
- Notes
1 Symbiotic, Resilient, and Rapidly Transforming Food Supply Chains in LMICs: Supermarket and E-commerce Revolutions Helped by Wholesale and Logistics Co-pivoting
- Notes
- Notes
2 Global Agricultural Value Chains and Structural Transformation
- Notes
- Notes
3 Exchange Rate Volatility and Global Food Supply Chains
- Notes
- Notes
4 Fertilizer and Algal Blooms: A Satellite Approach to Assessing Water Quality
- Notes
- Notes
5 Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain
- Notes
- Notes
6 The Performance and Future of Ag Supply Chains
- Notes
- Notes
  See Also
  A multi-material cascade elastocaloric cooling device for large temperature lift Partisan Think Tanks and Polarization across Issues US Patent for Systems and methods for determining predicted distribution of future transportation service time point Patent (Patent # 10,740,701 issued August 11, 2020)Renewable Methanol as a Fuel for Heavy-Duty Engines: A Review of Technologies Enabling Single-Fuel Solutions.
- 7.1 Introduction 7.1 Introduction
- 7.2 Background 7.2 Background
  - 7.2.1 Chinese Pork Supply Chain 7.2.1 Chinese Pork Supply Chain
  - 7.2.2 ASF Outbreak in China and Policy Responses 7.2.2 ASF Outbreak in China and Policy Responses
- 7.3 Econometric Approaches 7.3 Econometric Approaches
  - 7.3.1 Spatial Model 7.3.1 Spatial Model
  - 7.3.2 Reduced form Econometric Model 7.3.2 Reduced form Econometric Model
- 7.4 Data 7.4 Data
- 7.5 Empirical Results 7.5 Empirical Results
  - 7.5.1 Spatial Regression Outcomes 7.5.1 Spatial Regression Outcomes
  - 7.5.2 Reduced Form Regressions 7.5.2 Reduced Form Regressions
- 7.6 Concluding Remarks 7.6 Concluding Remarks
- Appendix Appendix
  - Officially Reported ASF Cases in China Officially Reported ASF Cases in China
- References References
  - Notes
- Notes
- Notes
8 Concentration and Resilience in the US Meat Supply Chains
- Notes
- Notes
9 Labor Dynamics and Supply Chain Disruption in Food Manufacturing
- Notes
- Notes
10 Has Global Agricultural Trade Been Resilient under COVID-19? Findings from an Econometric Assessment of 2020
- Notes
- Notes
- Contributors
  - Notes
  - Notes
- Index
  - Notes
  - Notes

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Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains

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Michael Delgado,

Michael Delgado

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Meilin Ma,

Meilin Ma

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H. Holly Wang

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https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226829234.003.0008

Pages

139–158

Published:

September 2023

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OXFORD ACADEMIC STYLE

Delgado, Michael, Meilin Ma, and H. Holly Wang, 'Exploring Spatial Price Relationships: The Case of African Swine Fever in China', in Pol Antrás, and David Zilberman (eds), Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains (Chicago, IL, 2023; online edn, Chicago Scholarship Online, 23 May 2024), https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226829234.003.0008, accessed 25 May 2024.

CHICAGO STYLE

Delgado, Michael, Meilin Ma, and H. Holly Wang. "Exploring Spatial Price Relationships: The Case of African Swine Fever in China." In Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains. Edited by Pol Antrás, and David Zilberman (eds). University of Chicago Press, 2023. Chicago Scholarship Online, 2024. https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226829234.003.0008.

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Abstract

We use a temporary ban on inter-province shipping of live hogs induced by the 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China as a natural experiment to study spatial mechanisms behind the dynamics of market integration. With a unique dataset of weekly provincial hog prices, we employ a novel spatial network model to estimate the strength of price co-movement across provinces pre and post the ban. Results indicate that, in the highly integrated national market prior to the ban, longer geographical distances between two provinces did not weaken the strength of their price linkage. The ban broke down spatial integration. Longer distances became a significant obstacle to spatial price linkage in the post-ban periods, implying faster re-integration of hog prices between proximate provinces than remote ones. The negative effect of distance can be rationalized by the interplay between arbitrage opportunities and imperfect information. Our findings highlight information transparency as a key to market integration post shipping bans used to curb animal pandemics like ASF.

Keywords: Information transparency, market integration, spatial models, spatial price relationships

Subject

Economic Development and Growth

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